The School of Political Science and Sociology research seminar: ‘Spoiled for choice: The effects of negative political messaging in multiparty systems with multimember electoral districts’

The School of Political Science and Sociology invite you to a research seminar with:

Michele Crepaz (Queen’s University Belfast)

Supported by the Power, Conflict and Ideologies Research Cluster

 ‘Spoiled for choice: The effects of negative political messaging in multiparty systems with multimember electoral districts’

 Abstract:

Classical electoral behaviour theories associate the use of negative campaigning with two-party plurality systems. Nevertheless, negative campaigning has become a widely used electoral strategy also outside of these contexts, despite scant scholarly evidence of its benefits for political parties and candidates who employ it. Our research question is simple – is negative campaign messaging effective in multiparty systems with multimember districts? Or does it create a ‘boomerang effect’ in this context, for which the producer of the message faces a backlash? Multiparty systems with multimember districts should, according to the literature, be least-likely scenarios, where the effects of negative campaigning are most complex if not unpredictable. If found to be effective, this could be evidence that the strategy of attacking political opponents is less context dependent than previously assumed. This paper uses the newly available archive of Facebook political ads to inform a survey experiment design that tests the effects of negative political messages on voters. We employ this survey in Ireland, which uses the single transferable vote system, as a suitable least-likely case. Our results suggest some preliminary evidence in support of the efficacy of negative campaigning in these contexts which invalidate previously held assumptions. We also probe the causal mechanisms that underlie the effects of negative messages in this context.

Paper Authors:

Alan Duggan (University of Nottingham)

Michele Crepaz (Queen’s University Belfast)

Liam Kneafsey (Trinity College Dublin)

All Welcome!